The Big Final

With 90,000 Aussie fans screaming at the top of their voices at a ground where some of the boundaries are almost twice as that of Eden Park, and where it doesn’t swing like it does in the Kiwi land, New Zealand will definitely be up against it.  Add to the fact that they will be up against a destructive opener, a number 3 who forgot what failure spells like, three destructive all-rounders each capable of winning a match on their own, and the 2 Mitchells. So, in spite of all of Baz’s aggression and Boult’s swing, it will take a brave man to bet against the mighty Aussies.

Make no mistake, this New Zealand side is different. Even 5 years back, the New Zealand team would be full of bits and pieces overachieving cricketers led by a defensive captain. It is no longer the case today. McCullum’s attacking captaincy has been one of the highlights of the tournament. The entire team is feeding off the positive energy that he brings to the table. But, for the first time, he will be missing the home support. And the extravagant swing that Southee and Boult generated in the first 15 overs in almost all of the Black Caps’ matches so far. It is easier to have 3 slips and a gully, when the opposition is 45/3 after 12 overs and the ball is moving around. But McCullum’s biggest challenge so far will come when on a hot day at Melbourne, with the opposition off to a good start, and the pitch not doing much, he will have to contain which is arguably the deepest and most destructive batting line up of recent times. And a certain MS Dhoni will surely agree that this is one unenviable job.

This Aussie batting line up is such that they will keep coming at you. The Warner/Finch combo has not yet fired as a pair so far in the tournament. If they stick around for 15 overs, Australia will be so far ahead in the game that it will be difficult for the Kiwis to come back. The batting order reshuffling to have Smith at 3 and Clarke at 4 was a masterstroke. The line up looks much more stable. And if they do not lose more than 3 wickets in the first 30 overs; Maxwell, Watson, Faulkner, Haddin and even Johnson will make sure that the Australians will be pretty close to doubling their 35 over score in the last 15 overs. The only way to restrict them is to get them bowled out the way the Kiwis did at Auckland. Apart from that aberration, their scores in the matches where they batted first against test playing nations (England, Sri Lanka and India) read 342, 371 and 328. Any team would be reasonably confident defending such scores. And if a team has a left arm pacer in the form of his life and bowling at 95 miles/hour, that team becomes unbeatable.

But in McCullum, New Zealand possess a match winner which India did not have while chasing 329 in the semis. Batting first or second, 50 balls of McCullum will prove to be a decisive difference. But apart from that, the rest of the New Zealand batting does not have the same quality as the Aussies. Williamson and Taylor have not yet done anything great so far in the cup. Guptill may be the second highest run scorer, but a huge chunk of that has come from the 237 against West Indies and the century against Bangladesh. Elliot and Andersen proved themselves in a tough chase against the South Africans. But repeating their heroics at the MCG will take a lot of doing. With Ronchi at 7 and Vettori at 8, New Zealand also bat deep. Whether they can deliver under pressure against Johnson, Starc and co is another question altogether.

Michael Clarke will look to sign off on a high

This is the last time we will see Michael Clarke don the yellow shirt. And possibly the last time we see Daniel Vettori playing international cricket. Playing the entire summer in the backdrop of a career threatening injury and a colleague’s death has been physically and emotionally tough for Clarke. If he can win it for Australia, there will be no better way for him to sign off.  Martin Crowe, one of the greatest Kiwi cricketer to play the game, and terminally ill, has blogged that this could be the last ever cricket match that he gets to see. He could not do it in 1992.  For McCullum’s men to fulfil Crowe’s dream, 11 Kiwis will have to play the best match of their lives. The world will hope they do.